Space specialists are keeping a tight eye on a recently found asteroid because its chances of striking Earth are extremely low. On December 22, 2032, there is a 1.2% possibility that the asteroid 2024 YR4 may strike Earth. This also means that there is a 98.8% chance that it will pass Earth safely, the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA emphasize.
Monitoring the Asteroid’s Course
It is predicted that the asteroid is between 40 and 100 meters (131 and 328 ft) broad. Scientists estimate that asteroids of this size only come close to Earth every few thousand years. If the 2024 YR4 were to strike, its high speed of roughly 38,028 miles per hour (17 kilometers) might cause significant regional damage.
On December 27, 2024, the asteroid was first detected by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope located in Rio Hurtado, Chile. This NASA-funded technology looks for near-Earth objects in the sky. 2024 YR4 was at the top of both NASA’s and ESA’s asteroid risk lists after automated tracking systems identified it as a possible hazard after its detection.
Additional Thoughts and Forecasts
Using cutting-edge telescopes in New Mexico, Chile, and Denmark, astronomers have been monitoring the asteroid since early January 2025. The information collected will be used to improve future trajectory predictions for the asteroid. There are currently 28 million miles (45 million kilometers) separating 2024 YR4 from Earth, and this distance is continually increasing.
Observations will continue until early April, even though the asteroid won’t return to Earth’s orbit until 2028. It will stay on danger lists until it reappears if it disappears before additional confirmation.
The Science of Risk Assessment
Due to a lack of information, an asteroid’s impact probability may appear high when it is initially identified. The uncertainty diminishes with additional observations, frequently removing the risk completely. Scientists forecast