NASA has increased the chance that the asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit Earth in 2032. This time, the likelihood was 2.3%, up from 1.3% in December. Despite this, astronomers stress that more knowledge will likely reduce the risk.
Updated Risk Evaluation
NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) monitors asteroids that approach Earth. Recently, updated calculations placed 2024 YR4 at a one-in-43 chance of impact. The European Space Agency (ESA) had previously estimated a lower risk. On December 22, 2032, the asteroid will make its closest approach.
At approximately 300 feet in width, 2024 YR4 is similar in size to the asteroid that caused the Tunguska event in 1908. That explosion flattened over 800 square miles of Siberian forest. However, scientists stress that such events are extremely rare.
On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, Understanding the Torino Impact Scale 2024 YR4 has received a score of three. On this scale, zero denotes no danger and 10 denotes a catastrophic occurrence. Astronomers are still hopeful despite the asteroid topping risk lists.
Impact likelihood fluctuates often. According to ESA, risk evaluations frequently alter as further observations improve trajectory data. In other instances, more accurate measures led to the dismissal of early worries.
ESA and NASA Maintain Their Confidence
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office reassures the public that fresh information may completely eliminate the risk. Researcher Molly Wasser stated that additional tracking has ruled many asteroids harmless after they appeared on risk lists.
Professor Colin Snodgrass of the University of Edinburgh echoed this view. He emphasized that extended observation would improve accuracy. Most likely, he stated, 2024 YR4 will pass without incident.
Prior Asteroid Alerts
At one point, experts regarded asteroid 99942 Apophis as a serious danger. Experts discovered it in 2004 and gave it a four-star Torino grade. Subsequent estimates, however, indicated little risk for at least a century.
NASA has created efficient asteroid deflection techniques, even if 2024 YR4 is still a worry. By smashing a spacecraft with an asteroid, the 2022 DART mission showed that it is possible to change the course of an asteroid. Scientists say they may employ this technology if needed.
In conclusion
Experts stress that there is no immediate threat, even if impact probability have increased. A clearer picture will emerge from ongoing observation. Previous asteroid warnings have demonstrated that hazards often decrease as data increases. Astronomers are still optimistic that Earth will be safe for the time being.
